Global rice prices set to decline through 2026

Global rice prices, which soared to their highest levels since 2008 in 2023, are expected to continue their downward trajectory through early 2026, driven by an oversupply from Asia and record-high global rice stocks, according to the latest report from the International Rice Statistics Observatory (OSIRIZ), affiliated with the French agricultural research center CIRAD.

The report highlights that the global rice market is experiencing a significant shift due to abundant harvests in Asia, particularly in India, the world’s most populous nation and now the largest rice producer, surpassing China.

India is projected to export a record-breaking 25 million tonnes of rice during the 2025/2026 season, fueled by favorable monsoon rains and expanded cultivation. This surge in supply is contributing to a global rice stock increase of 5.8%, reaching an all-time high of 210.3 million tonnes.

“Abundant export supplies have already led to a 1.7% price drop since July,” the OSIRIZ report notes, emphasizing that the influx of Asian harvests and the release of India’s overstocked reserves are key drivers of the ongoing price decline. The report forecasts that this trend will persist at least until early 2026, as global demand struggles to keep pace with the oversupply.

Despite the price slump, global rice trade remains robust, with an expected volume of 61.4 million tonnes in 2025, marking a 2.9% increase from the previous year.

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the world’s leading hub for rice imports, is driving much of this demand. The region, which accounts for nearly a third of global rice imports, is projected to increase its imports by 15% in 2025, reaching 19.5 million tonnes, up from 18.9 million tonnes in 2024. This follows a significant 17% rise in imports last year, as local rice supplies in SSA remain tight, boosting reliance on Asian exports.

“Seasonal supplies of local rice in sub-Saharan Africa are constrained, and demand for imported Asian rice remains very strong,” the OSIRIZ report states. Countries like Nigeria, Côte d’Ivoire, and Senegal are among the top importers, with the Philippines leading globally, expected to import 5.4 million tonnes in 2025.

Rice, the least traded major cereal compared to wheat and maize, remains a critical staple for over half the world’s population, particularly in Asia, SSA, and South America.

However, the current oversupply and weakened global demand pose challenges for exporters, especially in Asia, where rice is a vital economic commodity.

For instance, Indian 5% broken rice prices dropped to US$434 per tonne as of January 2025, a 19-month low, while Vietnamese white rice was priced at US$429 per tonne, according to S&P Global Platts.

The report also warns of vulnerabilities in the rice market, including climate-related risks such as El Niño and logistical bottlenecks in Asian shipping lanes.

Past export restrictions, like India’s 2023 ban, caused a 30% price spike, disproportionately affecting poorer importing nations in SSA. While consumers in these regions may benefit from lower prices in the short term, the oversupply could strain exporters and farmers in producing countries.