Seafood exports expected to hit USD 11 billion in 2025

Persistent efforts amidst market fluctuations

According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), Vietnam’s seafood exports recorded a significant milestone in the first 10 months of 2025, topping USD 9.5 billion, an increase of 15% compared to the same period last year.

This achievement underscores the industry’s persistent efforts amid highly volatile market conditions, particularly policy shocks from the US market. Although signs of a slowdown began to appear in the third quarter due to the impact of countervailing duties, key product groups maintained good growth momentum, creating the foundation for full-year exports to reach the USD 11 billion mark.

In the export product mix, shrimp continues to hold the “locomotive” role, generating over USD 3.9 billion in the first 10 months. While white-leg and black tiger shrimp maintained stable growth, the spotlight this year was on lobster, a product that achieved an extremely rare breakthrough growth rate of 134%, totaling over USD 712 million. This boom stems from immense demand from China and Hong Kong for live and premium shrimp, particularly in the HORECA (Hotel, Restaurant, Catering) sector.

Pangasius is the second key commodity, with an export turnover of approximately USD 1.8 billion after 10 months. Notably, tilapia emerged as a bright spot, achieving 220% growth to reach USD 62 million. It is now being strategically positioned as a potential strategic sector for Vietnam, driven by rising demand in the US and several European countries.

In contrast, tuna remains under significant pressure. Ten-month exports hovered around USD 791 million, nearly 4% lower than the same period last year due to a shortage of skipjack tuna raw material for canned processing and ongoing supply chain disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict. Some enterprises have had to scale back production or shift to loin products to reduce costs.

Conversely, the squid and octopus group has seen a clear recovery, pushing the 10-month total turnover past USD 627 million. Demand in Japan, South Korea, and the US has improved sharply, especially for frozen products used in processing. Fish cake and surimi also garnered attention, reaching USD 291 million in 10 months – a 24% increase year-over-year, making it one of the fastest-growing sectors within the industry.

VASEP also stated that in the first 10 months of 2025, China and the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region continued to be a “crucial anchor” for Vietnam’s seafood industry. Export turnover to this market surpassed USD 2 billion, an increase of over 32%, with especially strong growth in lobster, marine fish, and live crab. The surging year-end demand for fresh and live seafood is opening significant room for growth in Vietnam’s exports.

In contrast, the US market is entering a period of high volatility. While overall exports to the US for the 10 months still increased compared to the same period last year, reaching about USD 1.66 billion, a downward trend has become evident since the third quarter due to the 20% countervailing duty implemented in August. The major commodity groups of shrimp and pangasius both saw reductions in September and October as many companies proactively adjusted inventory levels to mitigate the risk of losses.

Furthermore, other challenges such as the anti-dumping tax on shrimp and the regulations under the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA), expected to directly affect wild-caught seafood from early 2026, make the US market a “hotspot for risk” for the industry.

Exports to Japan continue their stable recovery, with 10-month turnover reaching nearly USD 1.45 billion, driven by strong consumption of shrimp, squid, marine fish, and pasteurized crab products. The EU is also a strong growth market, achieving USD 985 million in 10 months, benefiting from the bloc easing some technical barriers on Vietnamese aquaculture products.

Identifying opportunities and challenges in 2026

For the shrimp sector, the global frozen shrimp market is forecasted to increase from approximately USD 18,742.6 million in 2025 to USD 32,847.3 million by 2035-representing a growth of about 75.3% over the next 10 years. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) is estimated at 5.8% from 2025-2035.

The global frozen shrimp market is entering a strong growth phase, fueled by consumer trends favoring convenience foods, high protein demand, expansion of aquaculture, and modern processing technology. With growth projected to be more than one and a half times in the next decade, the frozen shrimp sector is a promising segment for producers, processors, and distributors.

Given the strong growth trajectory of the global frozen shrimp market, Vietnam’s shrimp industry faces a major opportunity to expand scale and increase export value. The demand for convenient, high-protein foods, coupled with trends toward deep processing and clear origin tracing, creates “room” for Vietnamese shrimp to penetrate higher-value segments. If the advantages in farming, processing, technology, and green standards are utilized effectively, the shrimp industry could not only boost production but also achieve a breakthrough in value over the next decade.

Mr. Le Van Quang, Chairman and CEO of Minh Phu Seafood Group Joint Stock Company, stated that the biggest challenge currently facing Vietnam’s shrimp industry is the inappropriate planning of farming areas. This has led to complex disease outbreaks and subsequently high production costs, up to 30% higher than in India and double that of Ecuador, thereby diminishing competitiveness.

“If the issues of disease control and rational farming area planning can be resolved, Vietnamese shrimp can absolutely rise to global leadership,” Mr. Quang emphasized.

For pangasius, China remains a potential market for Vietnam, despite some challenges. Demand for frozen pangasius fillet products in this market is stable due to their affordable prices and suitability for the mass consumer segment. Additionally, the geographical proximity provides significantly lower logistics costs compared to distant markets, creating a distinct competitive advantage for Vietnamese pangasius businesses.

In the EU market, pangasius still has ample room for growth. The shortage of white-fleshed fish is directly impacting prices and the distribution of market share for products in the region. In this context, the search for reasonably priced, stable supply alternatives is expected to increase, creating an opening for substitute products. Given its cost advantage, supply stability, and capacity to meet diverse processing requirements, Vietnamese pangasius is seen as a suitable candidate to increase market share in the EU.

Meanwhile, Vietnamese tilapia is emerging as a strategic commodity with the potential for a decisive “breakthrough” if properly invested in, from farming and processing to international brand building. With natural advantages, strong global demand, and supportive policies for aquaculture development, Vietnamese tilapia has excellent potential to become a key export item, complementing shrimp and pangasius.

Similarly, for the tuna industry, the Government recently issued Decree No. 309/2025/ND-CP, amending and supplementing several articles of Decrees 26/2019/ND-CP and 37/2024/ND-CP, which provide detailed regulations for implementing the Law on Fisheries.

Notably, the Decree amends certain provisions on exploitation management, including suspending enforcement of regulations on the minimum permitted size for harvesting particular aquatic species in Appendix V of Decree No. 37/2024/ND-CP. This suspension remains in effect until the regulations are modified to align with legal provisions, the Party’s principles, and the Government’s and Prime Minister’s directions.

This move is seen as a crucial step toward resolving difficulties for businesses, particularly in the tuna sector, thereby setting new expectations for the recovery and growth of the seafood industry in the near future.

Alongside the emerging opportunities, Vietnam’s seafood industry in 2026 will still face significant challenges, including the prolonged application of countervailing duties in the US market, the risk of impact from the MMPA, the possibility of the EU maintaining its IUU yellow card, and increasingly fierce competition from countries like India, Ecuador, and Indonesia.

This context requires Vietnamese enterprises to proactively restructure their markets, develop more value-added products, invest in processing technology, and raise sustainability standards, thereby laying the foundation for long-term growth.

Amidst the strong currents of global policy, market demands, and competition, Vietnamese seafood remains resiliently on a growth track, driven by internal strength, flexibility, and a strong ambition to reach further. While 2026 may bring more “headwinds,” it also marks a test of a more persistent and resilient development journey than ever before.

*USD 1 = VND 26.370 (Source: Vietcombank).