(VAN) The rice market in Asia-Pacific is forecasted to experience continued growth over the next decade, with an anticipated CAGR of +0.9% in volume and +1.2% in value. By 2035, the market is projected to reach 756M tons and $500.7B, respectively.
Market Forecast Driven by increasing demand for rice in Asia-Pacific, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.9% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 756M tons by the end of 2035.
In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +1.2% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $500.7B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.
Consumption
Asia-Pacific’s Consumption of Rice
Rice consumption stood at 685M tons in 2024, approximately reflecting 2023. In general, consumption recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the consumption volume increased by 2.4%. The volume of consumption peaked in 2024 and is likely to continue growth in years to come.
The value of the rice market in Asia-Pacific reached $437.4B in 2024, almost unchanged from the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 2.8%. The level of consumption peaked at $474.2B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2024, consumption failed to regain momentum.
Consumption By Country
The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2024 were China (208M tons), India (190M tons) and Bangladesh (59M tons), together comprising 67% of total consumption. Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines and Thailand lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 21%.
From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for the Philippines (with a CAGR of +2.4%), while consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, the largest rice markets in Asia-Pacific were China ($110.2B), India ($110.1B) and Bangladesh ($58.5B), together comprising 64% of the total market.
Bangladesh, with a CAGR of +2.7%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size in terms of the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
The countries with the highest levels of rice per capita consumption in 2024 were Vietnam (381 kg per person), Bangladesh (343 kg per person) and Thailand (342 kg per person).
From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for India (with a CAGR of +1.2%), while consumption for the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the per capita consumption figures.
Production
Asia-Pacific’s Production of Rice
In 2024, production of rice decreased by -0.4% to 709M tons for the first time since 2019, thus ending a four-year rising trend. In general, production, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when the production volume increased by 2.5% against the previous year. Over the period under review, production attained the peak volume at 712M tons in 2023, and then reduced in the following year. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a relatively flat trend pattern of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.
In value terms, rice production amounted to $434.4B in 2024 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production continues to indicate a mild reduction. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 with an increase of 2.8%. The level of production peaked at $498.5B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2024, production failed to regain momentum.
Production By Country
The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2024 were China (208M tons), India (205M tons) and Bangladesh (58M tons), together comprising 66% of total production.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the key producing countries, was attained by India (with a CAGR of +2.3%), while production for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Yield
In 2024, the average yield of rice in Asia-Pacific fell to 5 tons per ha, therefore, remained relatively stable against the year before. Overall, the yield, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the yield increased by 1.6% against the previous year. The level of yield peaked at 5 tons per ha in 2023, and then declined slightly in the following year.
Harvested Area
The rice harvested area reached 143M ha in 2024, standing approx. at the year before. In general, the harvested area continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 when the harvested area increased by 2.7% against the previous year. The level of harvested area peaked at 143M ha in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, the harvested area remained at a lower figure.
Imports
Asia-Pacific’s Imports of Rice
In 2024, approx. 19M tons of rice were imported in Asia-Pacific; with an increase of 30% compared with 2023 figures. Total imports indicated a buoyant increase from 2013 to 2024: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +7.3% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, imports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.
In value terms, rice imports totaled $10.7B in 2024. In general, imports continue to indicate strong growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 20% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports reached the peak figure in 2024 and are likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.
Imports By Country
The Philippines (4.4M tons) and Indonesia (4.2M tons) represented roughly 45% of total imports in 2024. Malaysia (1.9M tons) held a 9.8% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by China (8.6%) and Vietnam (6.7%). Japan (756K tons), Nepal (755K tons), Bangladesh (696K tons), South Korea (567K tons) and Afghanistan (529K tons) took a relatively small share of total imports.
From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Vietnam (with a CAGR of +32.9%), while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, the Philippines ($2.6B), Indonesia ($1.8B) and Malaysia ($1.2B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2024, together accounting for 52% of total imports.
The Philippines, with a CAGR of +27.8%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Imports By Type
Semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice represented the major type of rice in Asia-Pacific, with the volume of imports recording 15M tons, which was near 80% of total imports in 2024. Broken rice (2M tons) took an 11% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by paddy rice (6.2%). Husked (brown) rice (621K tons) held a little share of total imports.
From 2013 to 2024, average annual rates of growth with regard to semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice imports of stood at +7.3%. At the same time, paddy rice (+13.5%), broken rice (+7.1%) and husked (brown) rice (+1.4%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, paddy rice emerged as the fastest-growing type imported in Asia-Pacific, with a CAGR of +13.5% from 2013-2024. While the share of paddy rice (+2.8 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total imports from 2013-2024, the share of husked (brown) rice (-2.9 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other products remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.
In value terms, semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice ($8.5B) constitutes the largest type of rice imported in Asia-Pacific, comprising 80% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by broken rice ($917M), with an 8.6% share of total imports. It was followed by paddy rice, with a 7.2% share.
For semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice, imports increased at an average annual rate of +7.1% over the period from 2013-2024. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: broken rice (+7.7% per year) and paddy rice (+17.0% per year).
Import Prices By Type
The import price in Asia-Pacific stood at $565 per ton in 2024, shrinking by -13.4% against the previous year. In general, the import price showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2023 an increase of 18%. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $652 per ton, and then shrank in the following year.
Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was husked (brown) rice ($792 per ton), while the price for broken rice ($454 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by paddy rice (+3.1%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.
Import Prices By Country
In 2024, the import price in Asia-Pacific amounted to $565 per ton, reducing by -13.4% against the previous year. Overall, the import price showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2023 an increase of 18%. As a result, import price attained the peak level of $652 per ton, and then declined in the following year.
There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was South Korea ($942 per ton), while Nepal ($354 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Philippines (+2.8%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Exports
Asia-Pacific’s Exports of Rice
In 2024, approx. 43M tons of rice were exported in Asia-Pacific; standing approx. at the previous year’s figure. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 23%. Over the period under review, the exports attained the peak figure at 47M tons in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, the exports failed to regain momentum.
In value terms, rice exports expanded notably to $27.3B in 2024. Total exports indicated a pronounced expansion from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, exports increased by +48.4% against 2019 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 26%. The level of export peaked in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.
Exports By Country
In 2024, India (15M tons), distantly followed by Thailand (9.4M tons), Vietnam (6.1M tons), Pakistan (5.9M tons) and Myanmar (3M tons) were the largest exporters of rice, together committing 92% of total exports. The following exporters – Cambodia (1.3M tons) and China (1.1M tons) – each finished at a 5.7% share of total exports.
From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Myanmar (with a CAGR of +15.3%), while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, the largest rice supplying countries in Asia-Pacific were India ($9.9B), Thailand ($6.2B) and Pakistan ($3.9B), together comprising 73% of total exports. Vietnam, Myanmar, Cambodia and China lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 24%.
Cambodia, with a CAGR of +11.9%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Exports By Type
Semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice was the largest type of rice in Asia-Pacific, with the volume of exports finishing at 33M tons, which was near 78% of total exports in 2024. It was distantly followed by broken rice (6.6M tons), achieving a 15% share of total exports. Husked (brown) rice (1.9M tons) and paddy rice (1M tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.
From 2013 to 2024, average annual rates of growth with regard to semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice exports of stood at +2.0%. At the same time, paddy rice (+11.3%), broken rice (+8.5%) and husked (brown) rice (+5.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, paddy rice emerged as the fastest-growing type exported in Asia-Pacific, with a CAGR of +11.3% from 2013-2024. Broken rice (+6.7 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the total exports, while semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice saw its share reduced by -9.1% from 2013 to 2024, respectively. The shares of the other products remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.
In value terms, semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice ($22.3B) remains the largest type of rice supplied in Asia-Pacific, comprising 82% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by broken rice ($3B), with an 11% share of total exports. It was followed by husked (brown) rice, with a 4.5% share.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the value of semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice exports amounted to +2.3%. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: broken rice (+9.7% per year) and husked (brown) rice (+4.2% per year).
Export Prices By Type
The export price in Asia-Pacific stood at $642 per ton in 2024, increasing by 5.2% against the previous year. In general, the export price showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2023 when the export price increased by 24%. Over the period under review, the export prices attained the maximum in 2024 and is likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.
There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exported products. In 2024, the product with the highest price was paddy rice ($755 per ton), while the average price for exports of broken rice ($458 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by paddy rice (+3.8%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.
Export Prices By Country
In 2024, the export price in Asia-Pacific amounted to $642 per ton, rising by 5.2% against the previous year. In general, the export price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2023 an increase of 24% against the previous year. The level of export peaked in 2024 and is likely to see steady growth in the near future.
Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exporting countries. In 2024, major exporting countries recorded the following prices: in Cambodia ($693 per ton) and China ($679 per ton), while Myanmar ($469 per ton) and Vietnam ($587 per ton) were amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Vietnam (+2.6%), while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.
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