(VAN) Global cereal production set to reach an all-time high, although hot and dry weather could impact yields.
Palm and soybean oil for sale at the Klongtoey market in Bangkok, Thailand.
The FAO Food Price Index, a benchmark for world food commodity prices, averaged 128.0 points in June 2025, up 0.5 percent from May. Although international prices of cereals and sugar fell, these declines were outweighed by higher prices for dairy products, meat and vegetable oils.
The index, which tracks monthly changes in the international prices of a set of globally traded food commodities, was, in June 2025, 5.8 percent higher compared to its level a year earlier but remained well below its peak in March 2022.
The FAO Cereal Price Index fell by 1.5 percent in June from the previous month. World maize prices declined sharply for the second month amid abundant supplies from Argentina and Brazil. Prices of sorghum and barley also decreased. Wheat prices, by contrast, increased due to weather-related concerns in parts of the European Union (EU), the Russian Federation and the United States of America (USA). International rice prices dipped slightly, primarily for Indica varieties, reflecting softer demand.
The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index rose by 2.3 percent from May, led by gains in palm, soy and rapeseed oils. International palm oil prices climbed nearly 5 percent on strong global demand. Soy oil prices also rose in June driven by expectations of higher biofuel demand in Brazil and the USA, as well as higher soybean prices in South America amid firm international demand. Rapeseed oil prices also rose amid tight global supply outlooks, while sunflower oil prices eased on improved production prospects in the Black Sea region.
The FAO Meat Price Index increased by 2.1 percent in June, reaching a new all-time high. World prices of bovine, pig and ovine meats all rose, while poultry meat prices continued to fall.
The FAO Dairy Price Index rose by 0.5 percent in June compared to the previous month, with butter prices reaching a new record high amid tight supplies in Oceania and the EU, coupled with continued strong demand from Asia. Cheese prices increased for the third consecutive month, while the prices of skim and whole milk powders declined due to subdued global demand and ample supplies.
The FAO Sugar Price Index was down 5.2 percent from May, marking its fourth consecutive monthly decline and reaching its lowest level since April 2021. The decrease reflects improved production outlooks in Brazil, India and Thailand, where favourable weather and expanded plantings should result in higher outputs.
Global cereal production projected to reach a record high
FAO also released a new Cereal Supply and Demand Brief on Friday, with new insights on crop prospects in 2025/26.
FAO’s latest forecast foresees global cereal production in 2025 to reach an all-time high of 2 925 million tonnes, up 0.5 percent from last month and 2.3 percent above the 2024 level. The upward revision is driven by improved outlooks for wheat, maize and rice. However, forecasts for hot and dry weather in parts of key producing regions may impact yield potential, particularly for maize.
Wheat output is now forecast at 805.3 million tonnes, boosted by higher-than-expected yields in India and Pakistan. Global maize production is also forecast to increase, driven by favourable conditions in Brazil and a larger-than-anticipated planted area in India, offsetting reductions in Ukraine and the EU due to dry weather and reduced planted areas. Global rice production in 2025/26 is anticipated to reach a record level of 555.6 million tonnes (milled basis), buoyed by improved prospects in India, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Viet Nam, and despite expected declines in Iraq and the US.
Global cereal utilization in 2025/26 is forecast at 2 900 million tonnes, up 0.8 percent from 2024/25. Utilization of coarse grains has been revised upward, while the forecasts for wheat use has been slightly lowered. Rice consumption is expected to increase further, spurred by rising food demand and sustained ethanol production in India.
World cereal stocks at the end of the 2025/26 season are forecast to reach 889.1 million tonnes, representing a 2.2 rise from their opening levels. The global cereal stocks-to-use ratio is now expected to rise to 30.3 percent, suggesting a relatively comfortable supply outlook.
Global trade in cereals in 2025/26 is predicted to reach 486.9 million tonnes, up 1.2 percent from 2024/25. Exports of both wheat and rice are forecast to increase, with rice trade reaching an all-time high of 60.8 million tonnes. Maize trade is forecast to decline slightly, while trade in barley and sorghum will likely rise.
The Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS), hosted by FAO, also published its monthly Market Monitor on Friday. In addition to the regular market analysis, the new edition features an article on strategic grain reserves (SGRs) and food security, outlining guiding principles to keep SGRs small, simple and smart.
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