Dive Brief:
- U.S. corn exports at the end of 2024 reached their highest level in roughly six years, giving some relief to grain farmers who have struggled with ample supply and increased competition from other countries.
- First quarter U.S. corn exports for the 2024-25 marketing year reached 13 million tons, according to an Agriculture Department report. That’s the most since 2018-19, when farmers exported 16.1 million tons.
- Assuming economic conditions hold, the United States is expected to export 62.2 million tons of corn this marketing year, which the USDA says would be the third-highest volume of exports on record.
Dive Insight:
Plentiful corn stocks, competitive pricing and an uncharacteristically weak harvest from main competitor Brazil allowed U.S. exports to get off to a “strong start,” the USDA said in its report.
U.S. corn exports in recent years have faced increased competition from Brazil’s safrinha harvest, or the country’s winter corn crop. However, Brazil’s safrinha exports were off to a weak start, hitting the lowest in three years due in part to weather issues.
More of Brazil’s corn harvest is going to domestic ethanol production, the USDA said, limiting supplies for overseas markets. Brazil is also seeing muted demand from China, which has its own ample supply as it looks to become self-reliant in food production.
Monthly China imports have remained under 500,000 tons since August 2024, the lowest since March 2020, the USDA said. Imports have cratered since China enacted its first food security law to achieve “absolute self-sufficiency” in staple grains last June, Reuters reported.
With Brazil’s diminished export position, the U.S. has been able to increase sales to nontraditional partners. Commitments to Colombia are currently at 3.6 million tons, the highest level in history for this point in the year.
Mexico remains the top destination for U.S. corn exports, where drought conditions have spurred the country to import more crops. Dryness is expected to continue to fuel exports to Mexico, with the country forecast to import a similar volume of U.S. corn “as its record-setting amount last year,” the USDA said.
“While development of the South American crop may impact sales later this marketing year, under current market conditions, the United States is off to a strong start for 2024/25 exports,” the department said in its report.