Will there be another East Coast port strike in January? Experts weigh in.

I think the [ILA] would strike only if there’s really, at this juncture, no possibility of coming to an agreement for either party. I think what’s more likely is that the ILA is outspoken on this issue to remind the [USMX], and remind the public in general as well, that the strike that concluded recently with the framework agreement around wages, just wasn’t about wages — that automation is still an area that the ILA leadership are very concerned about, but also that they’re going to continually assert that their jobs can’t be replaced by automation.

What I suspect will happen, and I could be wrong about this, we don’t know what the future holds, that they will come to an agreement that reaffirms the job protections that ILA members already have under the current agreement that they’re still working under. That agreement might be enhanced with additional language that specifies that whether it’s the use of these partially automated cranes or whatever the other technologies may come, that there will be job guarantees that ILA members will get the right to work and maintain the new technologies.

As of right now, it is looking increasingly likely that the ILA will strike again in January. Negotiations have yet to resume and both sides have released statements that suggest they are willing to allow another strike. To prepare, we have been working with our customers to develop plans that mitigate supply chain risks in the event of a strike. For some, this has included switching ports, front-loading freight, adjusting inventory needs, or pivoting to air.

West Coast ports are already congested, as many shippers front-loaded freight to receive inventory before Lunar New Year and potential tariff changes, so it hasn’t been as simple as switching back and forth between coasts. We’re watching volume shifts closely to bring forward the best options that keep our customer’s supply chain moving during potential disruptions. If the strike happens, we will be prepared.

I would say where we are now it’s 50/50 and every day that goes on, where there’s not a conversation and a negotiation conversation that’s occurring, it increases. But I would say where we’re at now, it’s basically a coin toss.

My understanding from what I’ve heard at this moment is there hasn’t been any major conversations since about November 13-ish, I may be off on the exact date, but let’s say roughly a month ago where this absolute no to automation statement kind of popped through more strongly.

My understanding is there hasn’t been conversations or substantive conversations since, and that’s obviously not very conducive to finding a solution if no one’s talking through.

Whether or not the ILA will strike again in January depends on the ocean carriers’ appetite for being in the public eye. In October, the carriers ended up having to agree to a 62% pay increase to the union, and they may be hesitant to go down the same road especially given the possibility that president-elect Trump will back the union as President Biden did.

End game as I see it is that the carriers/USMX are going to lose this battle. I think that is more or less a forgone conclusion. The only question is how do they want to lose it? They’re going to have to lose it in a way that makes it the easiest to pass on these costs to the customers. That means it is in their interest that the strike is as long as possible [and] as painful as possible. When this is all set and done, it is easier for them to then go to all the U.S. importers and exporters and [say] basically either the base rate has gone up by ‘X’ dollars’ or ‘let’s introduce a new surcharge.’

At the end of the day, if they’re going to lose this fight, the more visible it is that they [USMX] have been browbeaten by a combination of the U.S. administration and the ILA, the easier it’s going to be for them to force through rate increase to compensate them for this.